What is Tilly's Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Tilly's's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.11%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Tilly's's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Apparel Retail subindustry, Tilly's's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Tilly's's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Retail - Cyclical Industry
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Tilly's's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Tilly's's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Tilly's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | -6.80 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.11% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Tilly's (Tilly's) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
10 Whatney, Irvine, CA, USA, 92618
Tilly's Inc works as a specialty retailer of casual apparel, footwear, and accessories for young men, young women, boys, and girls. It offers an unparalleled selection of relevant brands, styles, colors, sizes, and price points. It delivers branded fashion, and core styles for tops, outerwear, bottoms, and dresses. It also provides backpacks, hats, sunglasses, headphones, handbags, watches, and jewelry. The company markets its products under the brand names of Vans, RVCA, Adidas, Nike SB, and Hurley among others. It operates its stores in malls, lifestyle centers, power centers, community centers, outlet centers, street-front locations, and also through e-commerce.
Executives
| Pleasant Lake Onshore Feeder Fund Lp |
10 percent owner |
100 CARR 115 UNIT 1900, RINCON PR 00677 |
| Seth R Johnson |
director |
|
| Janet Kerr |
director |
50 CASTILIAN DR, GOLETA CA 93117 |
| Michael Henry |
officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER |
10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618 |
| Laura Janney |
officer: SEE REMARKS |
C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618 |
| Robert Simon Goodwin |
officer: See Remarks |
C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618 |
| Jonathon David Kosoff |
officer: Chief Digital Officer |
C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618 |
| Hezy Shaked |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: CHIEF STRATEGY OFFICER |
C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618 |
| Pleasant Lake Partners Llc |
10 percent owner |
100 CARR 115 UNIT 1900, RINCON PR 00677 |
| Fund 1 Investments, Llc |
10 percent owner |
100 CARR 115, UNIT 1900, RINCON PR 00677 |
| Edmond Thomas |
director, officer: President and CEO |
C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618 |
| Bernard Zeichner |
director |
C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618 |
| Teresa Luna Aragones |
director |
C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618 |
| Erin Melissa Chin |
director |
C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618 |
| Tricia D Smith |
officer: EVP CMO |
C/O URBAN OUTFITTERS INC, 5000 SOUTH BROAD STREET, PHILADELPHIA X1 19112 |
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